What next for Germany after government collapse? A timeline

The same day that Republican candidate Donald Trump retook the White House in the US presidential election, Germany's quarrelsome governing coalition fell apart once and for all.

An open dispute over future economic policies had laid bare just how severely relations among coalition partners had deteriorated — especially when it came to the smallest member of the three-way arrangement, the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), fired FDP leader Christian Lindner from his position as finance minister late on Wednesday night, triggering the government crisis. He proposed to hold a vote of no confidence in January.

Two of the three remaining FDP ministers in the federal government decided to follow their party leader and hand in their resignations. Transport Minister Volker Wissing, meanwhile, has said he will remain in office and quit the FDP instead.

With that, the coalition deal between the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals is officially history. A new road map is now taking shape, indicating how Germany might find its way back to a stable government.

First things first: Finish urgent business

In the coming weeks, the two remaining coalition partners, Scholz's SPD and the environmentalist Green Party, plan to continue running a minority government and finish up unfinished business. Scholz has spoken of passing a pensions package, legislation within the framework of the new EU asylum laws and an outstanding aid package to bolster Germany's floundering economy.

What he didn't mention was a supplementary budget for the current year. Without one, the minority government has considerably less room to maneuver.

It's unclear how Scholz might find a majority in the Bundestag to pass his budget. The chancellor has already announced planned talks with Friedrich Merz, head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Merz also leads the largest opposition group in the Bundestag, which consists of the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

However, some opposition lawmakers would like to see a snap election sooner rather than later — and certainly not as late as January. Merz has demanded that Scholz hold an immediate vote of no confidence, as a condition for his cooperation in pushing the urgent outstanding issues through parliament.

Step 1: Vote of no confidence

Scholz had hoped to wait until the Bundestag reconvened in the new year before holding a no-confidence vote. Article 68 of Germany's constitution, the Basic Law, outlines what would happen next: The chancellor must introduce a motion requesting that members of the Bundestag declare their support for him or her. Germany's constitution allows for 48-hours of consultations before the parliament must come to a decision. In Scholz's timeline, this would mean that the vote would be held on January 15.

Should the majority of the Bundestag withhold support for the chancellor, as most expect will be the case with Scholz, this would clear the way for a snap election. This would be the sixth time in Germany's history that a chancellor has called upon the Bundestag to show its support. Only in two previous cases has the chancellor managed to remain in power after the vote.

Step 2: Dissolution of parliament

In cases when only a minority of the Bundestag expresses its support for the chancellor, then he or she must propose that the federal president, currently Frank-Walter Steinmeier, dissolve parliament. If the head of state also sees no feasible prospects for a stable government under current circumstances, he or she has 21 days to dismiss parliament and clear the way for an early election.

On Thursday, Steinmeier announced that he was prepared to do just that.

At this point, Article 39 of Germany's Basic Law comes into play, which states that a new election must be held within 60 days of the dissolution of parliament.

Step 3: Early election

If events continue to progress along Scholz's preferred timeline, then Germans will be electing a new parliament in March. Should Steinmeier dismiss the Bundestag the same day the vote of no confidence is held, then the latest possible date for an election would be March 16.

For days, political correspondents in Berlin have been speculating whether an election might be held as early as March 1 or March 9. If Merz has his way, Germans could already be heading to the polls in January.

Either way, a strenuous road lies ahead. Parties had been expecting to hold a regularly schedule general election on September 28, 2025. Now, they will have to race to nominate their lead candidates and assemble state party lists.

This will be the first election held following the recent electoral law reform law, which will restrict the upcoming Bundestag to 630 members, down from 733.

Step 4: A new government

The latest surveys suggest Germany's next parliament will have a very different composition, with the recently-dismissed FDP not expected to garner the necessary 5% of votes required to stay in parliament. Most pollsters currently foresee a grand coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD as likely.

Following the 2021 election, it took elected parties 71 days to form a new government, and it wouldn't be surprising if the next government also took weeks to come to an agreement.

This article was originally written in German.