Who could lead Germany's conservatives back to power?

Germany's two center-right parties, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently leading in opinion polls. They hope to lead the federal government once again next year. All told, the conservative alliance (CDU/CSU) has held power for a total of 52 years since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1949.

Friedrich Merz was elected CDU chairman at the end of January 2022. Many in his party believe his position entitles him to become the candidate for chancellor. Still, many political observers in Germany are eagerly awaiting the party's final decision, likely to be announced following Brandenburg's state election on September 22.

Bavarian premier waiting in the wings

However, another leader has been heating up the political landscape: Markus Söder, head of the CSU and state premier of Bavaria. He has been calling loudly for Germany's current coalition government, led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, to be replaced. The coalition also includes the Green Party and the neoliberal Free Democrats. Söder's stance is harsh within the conservative parties: he rejects any political cooperation with the Greens.

On the question of Söder becoming the CDU/CSU candidate for chancellor, he recently said during a speech delivered in a beer tent: "I would not shirk from taking responsibility for our country." When Merz was confronted with Söder's remark at a press conference just hours later in faraway Berlin, he played it down, saying the statement had "no news value." The two men are in direct competition: they are both political "alpha animals." And they have both moved their respective parties further to the right.

The rivalry has arisen from the CDU/CSU alliance's unusual structure. Although the CDU and CSU are independent parties, together they form a parliamentary group in the German Bundestag. While the CSU exists exclusively in the state of Bavaria, its larger sister party, the CDU, operates in all other 15 states. Until now, they have always agreed on a joint candidate for chancellor. Most often, the candidate came from the CDU.

Söder, now 57, wanted to become a CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for Germany's 2021 national election. He lost during an internal party primary to the CDU's Armin Laschet and has criticized Laschet ever since. The 2021 federal election saw Olaf Scholz (SPD) become German chancellor.

Political scientist Thomas Biebricher told DW that the choice of conservative chancellor candidate is not only "a fundamental decision of great significance" for the conservative parties but for the entire party system in Germany.

Merz leads pack despite low ratings

Söder usually scores better in national opinion polls than Merz, whose approval ratings are low even within his own party. In the most recent ARD Deutschlandtrend survey by pollster infratest-dimap, Söder's approval rating as a potential chancellor candidate was 41% among all respondents. Merz's was only 23%. That is even lower than the approval rating for Hendrik Wüst (CDU), premier of Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia. There, Wüst heads a coalition government with the Greens. He is considered to be the rising star of a more middle-class, liberal CDU.

Biebricher doubts Söder will become the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate. He believes there are "still major reservations about Markus Söder and his behavior during the 2021 election campaign" within the CDU and that the fighting between Söder and Laschet during that contest "left its mark." 

Despite Söder's favorable poll results, Biebricher believes the Bavarian premier would only have a chance at the candidacy if Merz were to make a mistake. For instance, during the complex government formation process currently taking place following regional elections in the states of Saxony and Thuringia.

Biebricher even believes Hendrik Wüst, who is 49, might still enter the competition. Opinion polls show that Wüst's ratings are not worse than Merz – who has never held a government office. Should Merz "suffer serious damage" and lose viability as a chancellor candidate, the political scientist says, "many might consider siding with Wüst because they have had enough of Söder." If that were to happen, Biebricher posits that Merz, who is 68, could "build a generational bridge into a new CDU era." And many in the party would give him credit for doing so.

Whether a duel or a three-way fight, the CDU/CSU candidate competition will no doubt highlight the turbulences within the Christian Democratic camp. And at the end of September, the CDU will celebrate the 70th birthday of Angela Merkel — its longstanding leader. Friedrich Merz, her former inner-party rival, will no doubt have words of praise for this politician who dominated the West German party landscape with a distinctive style — as an East German — for a good 15 years.

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