Who could replace Boris Johnson if he's ousted?

As the UK police widen their probe into the alleged lockdown breaches, a no-confidence vote in the prime minister could happen sooner rather than later, possibly as early as next week. To trigger that vote, at least 54 Conservative Members of Parliament (15% of the 359 Tory MPs) must submit a letter to Graham Brady, the chair of  the 1922 Committee — the parliamentary group of the Conservative Party.

So far, some 15 MPs have publicly called on Johnson to resign and sent letters. However, the number of those who have written letters but have not yet disclosed it is believed to be in the 30s.

So, who could replace Boris Johnson? Here's a look at some of the frontrunners.

Rishi Sunak

Seen as the rising star of the Conservatives even before he became chancellor of the exchequer, or finance minister, in 2020 with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. "Dishy Rishi" as some UK tabloids dubbed him for his suave appearance and deft use of social media, has been lauded for his COVID-19 bailout package. His Tory friends admire his calm and composure in the face of the mayhem emanating from his illustrious neighbor one door down from him.

However, some of the gloss has come off. In January, he confirmed that a controversial National Insurance tax hike to fund the moribund National Health Service and social care would go ahead, notwithstanding a dramatic rise in energy bills and inflation. This hasn't gone down well with those Tories still steeped in the small state, low taxation and privatization era of Margaret Thatcher.

"Sunak has to be the favorite on the grounds of electability alone. He's also unlikely to divide the party, which is always a key criteria. That said, he might need to move fast lest his popularity with the public evaporates as the cost of living crisis accelerates," Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London, who specializes on the Conservatives, told DW via email.   

Sunak would be the first person of Asian heritage, and the first person of color, to become prime minister.

Liz Truss

The foreign secretary has in the past been written off by some as being a bit of a lightweight politician. However, she's now seen as a serious contender and, if the bookies are to be believed, has overtaken Sunak as the favorite.

She was the target of much derision, when, as environment secretary, she claimed at the Conservative Party conference in 2014 that "We import two-thirds of our cheese: That! Is! A! Disgrace!"

Truss, who in December took on the Brexit brief as part of her foreign portfolio, has gone from Remainer to passionate Brexiteer following the referendum in 2016.

She's set about putting together trade deals, although a trade agreement with the US has so far eluded her. Her allies within the party have praised her for landing deals with Japan and Australia.

Critics point out, however, that she's failed so far to secure a trade deal that the UK didn't already have as a member of the EU.

She's drawn comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, although that is slightly off the mark, said Bale. "Less a Thatcher in the making than a Thatcher tribute act. She's seen by many to be trying too hard."

While she's popular among party members, voters don't know much about her. And, as Bale points out, they may not like what they discover.

"On paper at least, she's even more of a neo-liberal state-shrinking zealot than Sunak — and she hasn't had her ardor cooled like he has by reality." 

Sajid Javid

The health secretary and former chancellor of the exchequer is seen as a solid pair of hands. He wasn't far off in the race to succeed Theresa May in 2019 and shouldn't be written off. One of his strengths is that he ticks the right boxes in terms of his Tory ideology which appeals to many party members.

While he's performed solidly during the pandemic, he may have left his flank open in regards to his NHS policies.

"His plans to clear the NHS backlog [there are currently 6 million Britons on a waiting list for treatment]  don't seem to have convinced too many people, which won't help if a contest (which I'm sure he'll enter) comes sooner rather than later," said Bale.

Priti Patel

The most socially conservative of the contenders, the home secretary is a divisive figure, but has admirers within the hard-right Conservative faction for her tough line on tackling immigration and crime. However, it's one thing appearing to be tough, but another to follow through.

"She's lost support recently because, like so many home secretaries before her, she talks the talk on immigration and crime but in reality can do little to control it. Not highly rated by colleagues, too many of whom (rightly or wrongly) don't see her as the sharpest knife in the drawer," said Bale. 

Jeremy Hunt

The former foreign and health secretary lost out to Johnson in the leadership contest 2019. He's regarded as a safe pair of hands and knows the ins-and-outs of the Conservative Party. Not exactly the most charismatic politician, but some observers say that may be an advantage in the face of the current turmoil in 10 Downing Street.

"He might get it if the party becomes desperate for someone who's the very opposite of Johnson but there's very little enthusiasm for him among the membership," said Bale.

Edited by: Sonia Phalnikar