Will Donald Tusk ground Poland's multibillion airport plans?

The three-way opposition alliance that won October 15's election in Poland faces several controversial inheritances from the current government with perhaps the most eye-catching being the flagship infrastructure project, the Central Communication Port (CPK), or the Warsaw Solidarity Airport.

The CPK — a planned transfer hub between Warsaw and Lodz — would integrate air, rail and road transport, with an airport to be built 37 kilometers (23 miles) west of the Polish capital on an area of 3,000 hectares. The megaproject would be Central and Eastern Europe's first intercontinental airport and larger than global airports such as Munich, London-Gatwick or Barcelona El Prat. 

The first stage of the airport — two parallel runways and infrastructure to handle 40 million passengers a year by 2035 — is planned to be launched in 2028, before being expanded to three parallel runways and a capacity of 65 million per year by 2060.

The project fits into EU transport goals and Brussels already subsidizes some of CPK's railway projects to the tune of over 400 million zlotys ($90 million, €80 million) as part of the trans-European transport TEN-T network. 

The CPK's railway program assumes the construction of 2,000 kilometers, with trains traveling at up to 250 kph and in the future at 350 kph. 

CPK has already purchased almost 1,100 hectares of land for investment purposes. The company pays 140% of the market value of buildings and 120% of the value of the land. So far, it says, over 1,300 owners have agreed to sell their properties to CPK. 

The most important permits have already been granted and 100% of the conceptual design of the airport terminal and the railway and bus stations is ready, prepared by Foster + Partners, a UK firm.

'A sick idea'

The opposition is threatening to scrap the project, saying it is the embodiment of 'right-wing megalomania.' 

They say the cost of compensating people for lost property would be enormous and socially damaging and accuse leading members of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party of benefiting from the huge investments.

"We all have the feeling that CPK is a political idea and, in many ways, a sick idea," Donald Tusk, head of the three-way alliance that is likely to form the new government, said during the campaign.

On October 23, Marcin Kierwinski, secretary general of Tusk's party, Civic Platform (PO), told Radio Plus that implementation of the CPK must be suspended. "The enormous amounts of money that have been wasted must be accounted for," he said. "We still need to see what contracts have been signed. We need to see how much public money can be saved."

The project's supporters say scrapping it would only benefit 'Poland's enemies.'

"These are headed, of course, by the Germans and the 'total opposition' that serves them," says Maciej Bukowski, the president of WiseEuropa, a think tank in Warsaw.

Can Poland afford not to go ahead?

So, it is perhaps worth considering whether the investment has a chance of paying off. 

According to CPK, the total costs associated with the construction are around $10 billion (€9 billion), with more than $8 billion coming from private investors and debt financing, and $1.25 billion from the state budget. 

French Vinci Airports and Australia's IFM's joint offer has already been selected as strategic investor and the Polish state would hold no less than a 51% stake. 

The port is estimated to record profits of €360-€450 million per year and Vinci and IFM could achieve an average return on assets of 10%-12% annually, Grzegorz Drozdz, an analyst at Conotoxia investment company in Warsaw, said. 

CPK estimates that state budget expenditure on the construction of the airport would be recovered after 12 years only from additional revenues from customs duties and VAT. 

A study by Kearney notes the project could add $4-5.5 billion per year to Poland's GDP and create 240,000-290,000 new jobs.

Need to replace Warsaw's existing airport

However, CPK's greatest advantage lies in logistics, analysts say. Warsaw's existing Chopin airport is one of the worst-adapted large airports in Europe to handle cargo and only 100,000 tons of cargo passes through per year, tiny compared to European leaders. 

"This means that CEE [Central and Eastern Europe] exporters and importers, especially those with intercontinental operations, are now practically forced to use German airports," says Drozdz. He believes the CPK has the potential to grow the metric to 550,000 tons. 

Bukowski says Chopin's liquidation would also create an opportunity for the city, in the form of land where houses for 30-50,000 people could be built. 

Locals unhappy

Residents of the areas designated for the construction of the CPK will see their properties acquired without fair compensation, says Monika Szymanczak-Siemiakowska, an ecological farmer who lives in the area intended for the transport hub.

She says there are no standard and transparent rules. "In Baranow, they pay only five zlotys per meter for land, and elsewhere they pay 185 zlotys, but the latter is an exception," she said.

Monika says the A50 highway would run through her fields and that it is very probable that high-voltage transmission networks will be built along this highway.

"Agriculture in this place will die because it would no longer be possible to work and produce healthy food near the highway. Moreover, the electromagnetic field drives away all fauna, and the soil becomes a desert," she told DW.

"CPK wrote to me that they will pay for the agricultural land only, but they will not pay for any planting, investments, immovable property that I have in the fields and are needed to run the farm," she added.

"I left a corporate job and returned here because I wanted to do something good for people. And now it turns out I have to give it up against my will. I'm not against development, as CPK claims. I am for development, but not for robbery," she concluded.

Edited by: Ashutosh Pandey