Yoon standoff shakes South Korea to the core

South Korea is facing its worst political crisis in many decades — an impeached president is hunkering down in the official residence, backed by parts of the military and his official security detail, and openly defying an arrest warrant against him.

Yoon Suk Yeol's supporters are rallying at the compound to show support and frustrate the efforts of the Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) that is trying to detain the politician. On Friday, 30 officials from the agency were forced to retreat from the residence after an hourslong standoff, which included them being confronted by the protesters, a military unit and the head of the Presidential Security Service.

Yoon's lawyers have insisted that the warrant for his arrest is "illegal and invalid." The legal team has filed an injunction and even pledged legal action against the anti-corruption agency.

Serving warrant 'practically impossible'

The CIO expressed "serious regrets over the behavior of the suspect" after pulling its team from the scene.

"We determined that executing the detention warrant would be practically impossible due to the continued confrontation, and suspended the execution out of concern for the safety of on-site personnel caused by the resistance," the agency said in a statement.

The also said they will "decide on the next steps" after reviewing the situation.

Analysts believe the agency will attempt to carry out the warrant again before it expires next week. However, opinions on Yoon's future are divided — some believe his return to power is inconceivable, while others point out that he still has a solid base of support across the country and thousands of people who are willing to march for him on the streets of Seoul.

"I expect the CIO will try to carry out the warrant again over the weekend or even on Monday, although they can simply skip this procedure and apply for a detention warrant without carrying out the detention, which will give them a further 20 days for the investigation," said Lee Sang-sin, a research fellow specializing in political science at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

"But for as long as Yoon declines to cooperate with the authorities, then more arrest warrants will not solve the problem," he told DW. "It is inevitable that there will be another showdown with Yoon's security detail and it is impossible to predict what will happen."

Yoon vows to fight on, praises 'free democracy'

In a handwritten message to his supporters on Wednesday, Yoon pledged to "fight to the end to protect the country."

Yoon was impeached for declaring martial law on December 3. This step imposes a ban on protests and political activity, both in parliament and by political parties in general. It also puts the government in charge of the media.

Yoon said he was aiming to protect South Korea "from the threat of North Korean communist forces" and wanted to "eradicate the despicable pro-North Korean anti-state forces that are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people, and to protect the free constitutional order." Faced with public pressure, however, he reversed the declaration just hours later.

And this week, he told his supporters that a "free democracy, where every national is the owner, not the state or a party, will surely prevail."

Yoon is seen as 'mastermind of the insurrection'

The opposition Democratic Party has expressed its outrage at Yoon's short-lived declaration of martial law and his defiance of what they see as the appropriate legal consequences. Senior party officials have claimed Yoon was trying to mobilize the far right to intervene against his arrest.

"Yoon Suk Yeol, the mastermind of the insurrection, is inciting insurrection as he hides in his residence and refuses to comply with the legal execution of state institutions while shouting for people to fight alongside him," Yonhap News quoted Democratic Party spokesman Jin Sung-joon as saying ahead of the Friday standoff.

Park Jung-won, a professor of law at Dankook University, believes the opposition underestimates Yoon's popularity. He suggested that as much as 40% of South Koreans still back the president.

"We do not know how the Constitutional Court will rule on the question of whether the impeachment of Yoon is legal, but there are many legal scholars who say it has been used improperly and that Yoon will ultimately not be impeached," he told DW.

"It is also clear that he still has a lot of support — demonstrations are planned throughout the weekend in Seoul — so I would say it is virtually impossible for the CIO to arrest him."  

Is Yoon finished?

Lee Sang-sin from the Korea Institute for National Unification has a different perspective. He believes Yoon is "merely dragging out the inevitable" by defying the state.

"And I would suggest that for the good of the country, he should go sooner rather than later because the uncertainty that the entire nation is feeling is not good," he said. "It is damaging to our political situation, our economy, the well-being of the people and our international standing."

Even with Yoon evading impeachment, "his political power is now finished and it would be impossible for him to return to the presidency," Lee said.

"As a nation, we need to move on, to hold new elections, to have a new government and a functioning president," he said. "I think everyone in South Korea feels that way today."

Edited by: Darko Janjevic