Electoral standoff

Just a few hours after polling stations closed on Wednesday July 9, Jakarta governor Jokowi declared victory based on what are widely seen as independent early results of more than 90 percent of the votes. The 53-year-old politician was ahead with about 5 percent of the votes in what would be Indonesia's tightest presidential elections so far. Jokowi's rival, ex-general Prabowo Subianto had about 48 percent of the vote.

The unofficial tallies, known as "quick counts," are based on a sample of around 1 per cent of ballots cast in selected polling stations and have been accurate in predicting the outcome of previous elections. But Prabowo - seen as a representative of the Indonesia's autocratic era - quickly referred to other figures used by his campaign team which reportedly indicate that he and running mate Hatta Rajasa had received "the support and mandate from the people of Indonesia," according to the AFP news agency.

But according to Gregory Poling, Southeast Asia expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), the public has yet to see evidence that Prabowo has won as the three major independent agencies which released quick counts indicated that Jokowi won by anywhere from 3.5 percent to just over 5 percent - well outside their historic margin of error of about plus/minus 1 percent.

A 'polarizing effect'

Official results are not due until July 22 due to the complexities of vote-counting across the archipelago's more than 17,000 islands. But the candidates' victory claims have already led to an unprecedented standoff in a country which has only witnessed two previous direct presidential elections after the downfall of long-serving autocrat Suharto in 1998. The two last presidential polls were won by a landslide by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, expected to step down this October.

Gregory Poling argues that "there would be nothing wrong with Prabowo insisting on waiting until the official results are released to concede, but insisting that he has already won is a bit baffling."

More likely, however, is that the former general will file appeals after the official results are released. But, as Poling explains, it's also possible that Prabowo continues to insist on victory and rails against Jokowi's apparent win.

"This could then make things very uncomfortable for his coalition and for the electorate as he could certainly have a polarizing effect on supporters over the next couple weeks." In the end, though, Prabowo will be under enormous pressure to accept defeat, no matter how painful that might be for him, Poling added.

Growing frustration

Indonesia is not only the world's most populous Muslim country, but also the third-largest democracy, with some 190 million voters eligible to cast their ballots. Many analysts regard the Southeast Asian country's democratic accomplishments after the overthrow of Suharto as remarkable. But there has also been growing frustration in recent years over a slowing economy, growing Islamic radicalism, poverty and rampant corruption.

"Corruption has been a big focus of the campaign, with both candidates vowing to clean up the system. This is clearly a motivating issue, especially for young Indonesians who voted for the first time and were fed up with the previous administration's slow progress on its promises to fight graft," said Poling. However, the analyst is convinced that for the majority of voters, "bread and butter issues surrounding the economy and access to social services" were decisive.

A smear campaign?

Many analysts believe that a victory for Jokowi - a former furniture seller from the island of Java - could usher in a new era for democratic reforms and a different leadership style especially in terms of tacking economic issues and a worsening human rights situation.

But Prabowo - the ex-general-turned businessman who was once married to Suharto's daughter - has turned out to be a tough contender. Just a few weeks ago, opinion polls suggested that Jokowi, the candidate of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-Perjuangan), was the clear the favorite to win.

However, Prabowo's team managed to narrow the lead by gaining the support of other large parties and launching an expensive and aggressive campaign, suggesting, among other things, that Jokowi was an ethnic-Chinese Christian, a politically dangerous allegation in the Muslim-majority country. Jokowi has denied the claims.

What awaits the next president?

Regardless of who wins the poll, Indonesia's next president will face major challenges, ranging from fighting corruption to revitalizing the economy. "The new president will immediately face the troubles of managing a coalition, which will start with the appointment of his cabinet. This was always a thorn in the side of Yudhoyono, who had to deal with an unwieldy and often sabotaging coalition," said Poling

In terms of the economy, both candidates have promised market-friendly policies to revive growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy, but they have also favored an agenda focused on protecting local resources and firms, leading to concerns among foreign investors.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist at the analytics firm IHS, told DW the future president will have to decide on whether to pursue a strategy of globalization and greater international integration or a more nationalist, protectionist policies that could derail Indonesia's economic growth momentum.

"The prospects for Indonesia's medium term outlook will be shaped by the policy agenda of the incoming president. As there has been a significant shift towards more nationalistic policies during the last two years, mainly in the resources sector, a key concern for global investors is whether such policies could also be adopted in other industry sectors," said Biswas.

A test for democracy

Analysts agree the outcome of the election will be critical as it will show whether democracy has really consolidated in the Asian country of 240 million people. According to Poling, a democracy isn't really consolidated until there has been a peaceful transfer of power from one duly elected party to another.

"President Yudhoyono was the first directly elected president; now he is peacefully stepping down and a new head of state from a different party will take the mantle. That's a big deal," said Poling.