Free and fair?

The crowds at opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's final week of rallies ahead of Sunday's by-election remained enthusiastic.

The cheers and singing mark a major change in Myanmar's political climate after 50 years of sometimes brutal military rule.

Aung San Suu Kyi has been the centre of attention, smiling and encouraging her supporters in the elections for 45 seats in the 640-member national parliament.

Aung Zaw, editor of the on-line newspaper, The Irrawaddy, who recently returned to Myanmar after 20 years of exile, said the rallies were inspiring.

"People are so poor; they live in poverty, but they come out and cheer. It's so moving to see people so hopeful and it shows that they see Suu Kyi as the hope. And with Suu Kyi, they have no fear. Their problem is they don't know what is next," Aung Zaw told DW.

Suu Kyi a spotlight for election 

The election is so significant because Suu Kyi - known as "Mother Suu" or "The Lady" to her supporters - is standing for the first time in a national poll. In past elections, Suu Kyi was prevented from taking part due to her nearly two decades of house arrest.

In 1990, her National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory but the military refused to hand over power. Her party boycotted the 2010 elections.

This time, the NLD is contesting seats along with other minor opposition parties against the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).

But on Friday, addressing reporters at her University Avenue residence, Suu Kyi said the elections would neither be free nor fair due to widespread irregularities. Nonetheless, she added that she would press on with her candidacy for the sake of the country.

Rights Group see election as a 'showcase'  

Debbie Stothard, spokeswoman for the rights group, the Alternative ASEAN network, called the vote a “showcase by-election” aimed at appeasing the international community.

"We fully expect these by elections to be as unfair and unfree as the 2010 elections because the same laws and rules are being used," Stothard said.

"However, we also do expect that a handful of NLD candidates will be allowed into the parliament in a move to convince the international community to lift sanctions," she added.

The elections were unlikely to alter the balance of power. The pro-government USDP holds an overwhelming majority with the armed forces also entitled to a quota of seats.

But Khin Cho Myint, a former political prisoner now living in Thailand, hopes the NLD will secure up to 40 seats. But Cho Myint also fears voter fraud will undermine the party's position. She wants to see all remaining 900 political prisoners released before the lifting of economic sanctions on Myanmar.

Wider political participation

Skepticism over the vote now appears widespread. Soe Aung, spokesperson for the Forum for Democracy in Burma, says the election, while not leading to major changes in Myanmar, has opened a window for political participation.

"For us, we don't consider this election as an important political change or shift," Soe Aung told DW.

"But for the people of Burma, it is one of the very rare chances for them to express their support for the people's party, the NLD. So this is a different feeling among the people," he said.

The goal of President Thein Sein's government is that a credible election will lead to the sanctions being lifted. The sanctions, especially from the United States, have targeted senior members of the former military government.

A test of political pluralism

Sean Turnell, an associate economics professor at Australia's Macquarie University, said the elections mark a real test of the government's steps towards greater political reform.

"This is really a moment when the international community is really focusing to see whether these reforms are real in a sense that the regime or the government now is genuinely interested in pluralism and will really allow the voice of opposition in the parliament," Turnell told DW.

The ball, he said, now lies with Myanmar's government in running a free and fair election, with foreign governments preparing to lift sanctions if it passes the test.

Author: Ron Corben
Editor: Sarah Berning