'Memogate' scandal

The scandal now being referred to as “memogate” broke on October 10 - during a period when US-Pakistan relations are at their lowest ebb. Mansoor Ijaz, a US businessman, wrote in his column in the Financial Times that a senior Pakistani diplomat had asked for a memo to be delivered to the Pentagon with a plea for the US to stave off a military coup.

Ijaz later identified the diplomat as Pakistan's ambassador to Washington, Hussain Haqqani, reputed to be close to ailing President Asif Ali Zardari. Haqqani, while denying Ijaz's accusations, was nevertheless forced to resign. A petition was subsequently made to the Supreme Court requesting an investigation into the memo affair. Army chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has come out clearly in favor of an investigation by the court, whereas Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani's government wants the court to reject the petition and make the way free for a parliamentary investigation.

The scandal has become a hot topic, especially in the Pakistani media. Shamil Shams, a Deutsche Welle journalist currently in Pakistan, believes there is an underlying reason the “memogate” affair has taken on such proportions:

"It is aimed at maligning the Zardari government. All the opposition parties as well as the media, the rightist groups, the rightist parties, are all anti-PPP (Zardari's and Gilani's Pakistan People's Party) because the PPP is the only party which is at least a bit liberal, a bit more anti-establishment. I think the memogate scandal is aimed at removing the government of Asif Ali Zardari."

An unusual outburst

Gilani stated openly on Thursday that a conspiracy was being hatched "to pack up the political government." Speaking to a gathering at the National Arts Gallery in Islamabad, Gilani said that certain institutions were behaving like a "state within a state." He also questioned how bin Laden could have lived, without a visa and undetected, in Abbottabad for six years.

While insisting that "Nobody is above the law, all the institutions are subservient to the parliament," Gilani nevertheless called the army "disciplined" and said that they "follow the constitution" and "will remain under the government." Army chief Kayani has responded in kind by stating on Friday that any perception that the military plans a takeover is misleading and that the army is committed to democracy, as agencies report.

Nevertheless, the Pakistan People's Party is facing a clear choice, in Shams’ opinion:

"The choice that I think the Pakistan People's Party have at the moment is to either confront the army, or compromise with it. And I think the People's Party government thinks that it should be seen as an anti-establishment party because the (senate) elections will be held next year. Traditionally, the Pakistan People's Party voters are anti-establishment; they are not very pro-army; they are liberal, more towards the US than the other parties."

The roots of the conflict

The army's deep and well-known dissatisfaction with President Asif Ali Zardari is a different matter. If the Supreme Court were to decide in favor of an investigation into the “memogate” affair, it could well lead to Zardari's downfall, analysts believe. The ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has every reason to believe that the judges of the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Ali Chaudhry, may like to flex their muscles at the cost of the government.

The Supreme Court has adjourned the hearing on the memo petition until December 27. Chaudhry has made a display of the Court's self-confidence while attempting to allay fears of a military coup by saying on Friday: "Rest assured...in this country there is no question of (military) takeover because the people trust the apex court now."

In a further dig at both the government and the army, Chaudhry said: "Gone are the days when people used to get validation for unconstitutional steps from the courts."

As regards the conflict between the Zardari-Gilani government and the army, it is far from over, Shams thinks:

"Gilani asked what was bin Laden doing there, without a visa, hinting at a possibility that the Pakistan army, the generals were protecting, hiding Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. And that is something which is very, very radical. No prime minister of Pakistan has ever said anything as radical, as anti-army as this one - an open declaration of war, in my opinion."

Author: Arun Chowdhury (Reuters, AFP, dpa, AP)
Editor: Sarah Berning