Afghans increasingly pessimistic

The nationwide survey, published by The Asia Foundation on Tuesday, November 18, shows that while 54.7 percent of Afghans feel their country is moving in the right direction - down from 57.2 percent in 2013 - 40.4 percent feel the opposite way - up from 37.9 percent in 2013 - the largest percentage measured since the Afghan polling began ten years ago.

Conducted between June 22 and July 8 and titled Afghanistan in 2014: A Survey of the Afghan People, the public opinion poll cites insecurity (38 percent), alongside corruption (24 percent), unemployment (23 percent), a bad economy (10 percent), and election fraud (9 percent) as the main reasons for the increase in pessimism.

The findings come at a critical time for the conflict-ridden country as foreign combat troops prepare to leave in the coming weeks and government forces face an increasingly resilient insurgency. Moreover, many fear the new national unity government, inaugurated late September, may be paralyzed by internal power struggles between those supporting President Ashraf Ghani and those backing chief executive officer Abdullah Abdullah.

'Cautious optimism'

Abdullah Ahmadzai, currently representing The Asia Foundation in Afghanistan, says that the national mood in Afghanistan is of "cautious optimism," arguing that the recent drop in optimism is likely related to the numerous transitions taking place in the South Asian nation this year. "At the time of the polling, several development projects were delayed due to uncertainties around the 2014 presidential elections and signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement between Afghanistan and the US," the analyst told DW, adding that despite yearly fluctuations, the long-term trend since 2006 shows more Afghans believe the country is moving in the right direction.

Among the 9,271 face-to-face interviews conducted in all 34 Afghan provinces, 36 percent of respondents said they felt reconstruction, alongside good security (33 percent), and an improved education system (15 percent) are the main reasons for their optimism, according to the survey.

However, it seems Afghans are regionally divided in terms of where they see their country is headed. While optimism is highest in the East and West regions, residents of the North West, Central/Hazarajat, North East, and South West regions are increasingly concerned, the poll shows.

'Testing' the Afghan forces

At first glance, these figures may seem surprising, given that the Taliban-led insurgency is at its strongest in the east and south. But one possible reason for this trend is that there have been troubling security developments in areas outside of the south and east, as Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, explained.

"In recent months there have been reports of new Taliban campaigns against Afghan security forces in places where they had largely been quiet. The insurgents are likely testing Afghan forces to see how well they can resist Taliban pressure now that the Afghan army and police are largely fighting on their own, without help from foreign combat troops," Kugelman told DW.

The latest survey reveals that a majority of Afghans (65 percent) report always, often, or sometimes fearing for their safety or security or that of their family. Fear for safety has increased since 2013 (59 percent), and has been on an overall upward trend since 2006.

When asked which forces are most responsible for providing security in their area, half of Afghans cited the Afghan National Police (ANP), about a quarter the Afghan National Army (ANA), and 21.7 percent the Afghan Local Police (ALP). Overall perceptions of the ANA and ANP have improved over time, with 86 percent of Afghans saying they are confident in the ANA, and almost 75 percent saying they trust the ANP, according to the representative survey.

However, more than half of Afghans (56 percent) still say they think that the Afghan National Security Forces need foreign support to do their job properly and nearly three-quarters of respondents (73 percent) say the reconciliation efforts between Kabul and armed opposition groups (AOGs) can help stabilize the country. Approximately one in three Afghans say they have a lot of (7 percent) or a little (25 percent) sympathy with AOGs.

Security forces and the Taliban

Despite suffering major setbacks in recent years, the Taliban seem determined to make their presence felt by following a multi-pronged strategy. On the one side, the militants have been launching high-profile attacks in Kabul as well as on state facilities, prominent individuals, and soft targets patronized by foreigners. On the other side, experts believe they are testing local security forces by carrying out new campaigns in areas that have largely been peaceful in recent years - essentially outside of southern and eastern Afghanistan.

Analysts such as Kugelman believe that local security forces have made major improvements over the past decade, particularly on tactical and operational levels in the east and south of the country. However, he points out that there is reason for concern in other areas: "You have Afghan forces that may not be as strong simply because they haven't been tested as much," said the South Asia expert.

There is also considerable concern about more fundamental readiness issues: "While improvements have been made in recent years, there are still major problems with illiteracy, drug addiction, and desertion within the ranks," Kugelman added. Many hope that the residual international troop presence - about 10,000 strong - set to remain in the country post 2014 will help address these issues.

Economy and governance

Economic issues and corruption also played a major role in shaping Afghan public opinion this year. Around three-quarters of Afghans say that their economic situation in 2014 was worse or the same as it was in 2013, and only one-fifth say 2014 was better. Unemployment (33 percent) is the most frequently cited local problem, followed by the electricity supply (23 percent), roads (18 percent) and the availability of drinking water (16 percent).

When asked about governance, most Afghans reported corruption as a major problem in numerous arenas, ranging from 53 percent in their neighborhood to 75 percent in Afghanistan as a whole. Three-quarters of Afghans say the national government does a somewhat good or very good job and around two-thirds say provincial government is doing a good job. "Our in-depth interviews reveal that many Afghans say they are confident in institutions perhaps because they did not have these institutions in previous decades, and now they do," said Ahmadzai.

In terms of the situation of women, respondents identify illiteracy (24 percent), a lack of job opportunities (15 percent), domestic violence (11 percent), forced marriages and dowry payments (7 percent) as the biggest problems being faced by Afghan women.

Moreover, despite a years-long struggle to secure women's political rights, the number of Afghans who say that political positions in government should be mostly for men (46 percent) has overtaken the number of those who say that political positions should be shared equally between men and women (42 percent).

The presidential election

2014 was also a year of elections in Afghanistan. In a bid to enable the country's first democratic transition from one elected president to another, Afghans defied security threats twice and turned out in millions to vote. This sense of hope is also reflected in the poll's findings: "Afghans showed faith in the election process by voting in large numbers, and, as the survey shows, around two-thirds of respondents say they believe the result of the presidential election will make their lives better, a significant increase from last year (56 percent)," Ahmadzai told DW. In addition, two-thirds of those surveyed say they feel safe expressing their opinions about the government in public.

But the presidential vote, which led to the formation of a national unity government in September, was marred by a months-long dispute over fraud allegations. The electoral row, which temporarily plunged the country into a political crisis, led to an audit of more than eight million votes and, ultimately, to a US-brokered power-sharing agreement between the two rival candidates. It also fueled the perception that the new government in Kabul is weak and divided.

Ghani - a reason for hope?

But as The Asia Foundation survey reflects, Afghans remain hopeful and expect change. And analysts indicate there are good reasons for optimism under President Ghani, who has spent his first two months acting decisively on a clear reform agenda. Ghani has not only signed the BSA with the US - which ensures that international troops can remain in the country - but he also reopened the investigation of the Kabul Bank scandal, a signal that he wants to advance a reformist agenda and regain the confidence of international donors, Scott Smith, director of the Afghanistan & Central Asia program at the United States Institute of Peace, said in a DW interview.

"President Karzai has been such a decisive influence over the past decade, that many - in Afghanistan and in the international community - think that his patronage-based form of governing is the only way that Afghanistan can be governed. It seems president Ghani is out to prove that this is not the case, and that a more modern, rules-based form of government can work in Afghanistan," said Smith.

The analyst points out, however, that the problem is that Ghani, while being decisive and reform-oriented, is so far acting alone and has failed to agree on a cabinet with Abdullah. While, in the short term, this has allowed Ghani to act with a great deal of flexibility and decisiveness, the president will have to face the issue of cabinet politics, and the dilemmas it poses, said Smith. It is expected that Ghani and Abdullah will name key ministers before a London meeting of donors in early December.